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Here is the link for the Forecasting tool:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dGbiLgZXtqW6Au_RuDnXWLM-m9ofXH6AyfSBQOC61lg/htmlview#gid=390690754Mark
11/05/17 – 11/11/17
Total Items In Store: 2,060
Items Sold: 25
Cost of Items Sold: $100 (around)
Total Sales: $1053
HIghest PrIce Sold: $300 (Vintage Hartmann Suitcase)
Average PrIce Sold: 42.12
Returns: 1
Money Spent on New Inventory ThIs Week: $ 21
Number of Items lIsted thIs week: 0What a difference a week makes! $270 last week after some key orders were cancelled. But good thing, the Harmann was one of the orders cancelled at $150. It sold for $300 this week.
I worked on the 10 year forecast and completed it. If you haven’t seen it, here is the link:
Scavengers_ForecastScavengers_Forecast
I discussed the forecast in this past week’s What Sold forum. This forecasting tool will greatly assist you in the Strategic Planning of your business. See this link that describes the Strategic Planning Process: http://study.com/academy/lesson/what-is-the-strategic-planning-process-model-steps-examples.htmlI know most of us are small shops, but we have to start thinking Strategicly about our business and plan the direction that it will go. Don’t just let it happen. My late father would often say, “If you aim for nothing, chances are you’ll hit it”. I don’t want to be that guy. I want to be the guy that sees the vision and goes for it! This forecasting tool shows me that I can scale the business much better if I contract out the various pieces that need to be done. I shared with Jay and T-Satt that my long term goal is just to focus on the buying\research and contract out the rest.
Mark
I created a 10 year forecast spreadsheet. I had Jay and T-Satt look it over. This may have a lot more than you use such as contractors and storage, just fill in what you do use.
Go to the top of the spreadsheet and fill in the applicable 30 contants at the top.
The initial setup was intended to forecast Jay & Ryanne’s store 1 since we are all familar with that.
So, take a look at it and have fun. I love to create “What if” scenario’s. Like, what if I started listing 200 items a month instead of 100? What is I hired a contractor to do the listing?
Here is the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dGbiLgZXtqW6Au_RuDnXWLM-m9ofXH6AyfSBQOC61lg/edit#gid=390690754
Make the spreadsheet your own. I’m sure you may need to customize it for your situation.
Mark S
T-Satt – I just emailed the spreadsheats to you.
I also included Jay & Ryanne because I did a forecast on their store #1.
Mark
T-Satt – I was referring to a lay off situation. I don’t want to jump the gun, it is just that things are getting unstable at work and I wanted to see where I stand. Ideally I would want to plan this out, but I may not get that chance. The numbers I gave were Net Profit. I would to like to send you my forecast sheet. R & J have my email (I will send it to them if they can’t find it), so just ask them for it and drop me a line. It would be great if you could look it over and tweak it. Then maybe we could share it with everyone as a good tool for forecasting. It may take me a bit to clean it up for others viewing and do some explanation.
Jay & Retro Treasures – I don’t know about other states, but when I had to call the unemployment office in Michigan, I was lucky if I could get through on the automated line. It would be a pipe dream to actually talk to someone in that office. I think my better bet is to contact an attorney via my pre-paid legal. Maybe they can set me straight on what the law in Michigan is concerning unemployment while you are self employed.
All on this thread – this was a good conversation. I look forward to more like this. We are really diving into the meat of things now.
Mark
I wasn’t quite right about the 20k I stated above. I would get to 20k\month, but not that fast. Below is what it would look like:
For the next 16 months after the initial 21 months, I would average about 10k.
The 12 months after that, I would average about 15.5k.
Then the 12 months after that about 18.5k.
Then the 12 months after that about 20k.
I had an interesting conversation with my Storage Unit Owner. I asked him if he had any climate controlled units (to plug the numbers in for my spreadsheet in the post above). He said that he didn’t, but he would call around and find out. He called right then while I was there. The only thing we could find that was in the immediate area was $270 for a 10 X 20. I am only paying $110 for a 10 X 15 from him right now but without any climate control.
His advice to me was to avoid the National Chains. His business is independent. He said their tactics are to get the units near full, then start raising the price so that tenants move out. Then they get new ones in. Their prices are usually way high as I can attest to in my area.
This is also good insight for anyone thinking of starting a storage unit business. Going independent can give you a real pricing advantage over the National Chains. One idea that I have is to open a storage unit business geared toward ebay sellers.
Mark
10/29/17 – 11/04/17
Total Items In Store: 2,073
Items Sold: 12
Cost of Items Sold: $27 (around)
Total Sales: $270
HIghest PrIce Sold: $50 (DKNY SIlk Spandex ShIrt)
Average PrIce Sold: 22.5
Returns: 2
Money Spent on New Inventory ThIs Week: $ 20
Number of Items lIsted thIs week: 0I have been thinking about what Retro Treasures was asking about going full time. So, I asked myself, could I go full time today If I got laid off at my job? I agree with what T-Satt and Mike said but I took it a step further by plugging the numbers into my forecast spreadsheet.
I copied the forecast spreadsheet that I use and then entered every last expense and income I could think of. And I do mean everything. The result? I found out that the first 9 months would be tight. I would have to do the majority of the work myself and work close to 60 hours per week. That is not a big deal to me, I probably already work near that many hours right now between my corporate job and ebay. Then I would have to hire out some things after 9 months because I would not have enough time to do everything without working a ridiculous amount of hours. Then I would have to get more storage space and I priced that out. After 21 months, I would be about $25,000 short in total – meaning I would need to make about another $1000 a month more for each of those 21 months. So, my take away is that I could do it if I take the time now to put about 1000 more items into my store. Also, I don’t want to, but I could use some 401k money If things fell short of what my forecast says. I just don’t want to start off knowing that the forecast says I will be short. The great part is that I found that after the 21 months, I would start to make a ridiculous amount of money (like 20k/ month) and would only have to work about 40 hours a week at that point, given the workers I would have contracted out to some of the work.
But, If anyone If contemplating a move like this, I would suggest doing a detailed spreadsheet like mine to look into the future and see if it is possible or not. If it is not possible right now, ask yourself what can be done now to prepare for it in the near future.
One question I was not able to answer. Would I be eligible for unemployment during that time? I have received unemployment before when I was laid off. But they ask you if you had made any wages that week. If you own your own business, you are not making wages and you will not know exactly what you have earned till tax time. Does anyone have any insight into this? That would make a big difference in my spreadsheet. I left out any unemployment benefits because I didn’t know if you could collect unemployment in this situation. I googled it, but I couldn’t find any information directly related to this question.
Mark
Jay,
I didn’t know how to fix them, my friend did. He was pretty good at it too. He could fix most anything. He did the fixing (and I helped as much as I could) and I stored all the washers and dryers in my basement. We both did everything else. And most of the fixes were very easy. Most were just a new belt for the dryer. The washers were usually easy too. Sometimes it was just a mater of adjusting the feet so that it was level so that it didn’t shake when it ran. Our joke was that one of the couple would use these little issues as an excuse to get a new washer or dryer. Then we got to capitalize on that.
Doesn’t seem like much has changed. Most of the items we all pick up now have little to no issues with them. I guess people just get tired of seeing the same old clothes, hat, case, etc. and get a new one. That’s when we all buy it!
Mark
My “extreme scavenging”:
About 20 years ago, long before I started on ebay, a friend of mine and I went “Into Business together”. Our plan was to pick up old washers and dryers, fix them and resell them. So, it came to the night when we were to pick up our first washer at someones curb in my friends parent’s neighborhood. We had never scavenged anything in our lives and now we were trying to do it in the neighborhood where my friend was known. Needless to say, we were extremely nervous. I think we circled around the block 4-5 times or more before we got the nerve up to stop and put that dang washer in the van. We were so nervous of being seen, that we practically threw the washer in the side door of the Windstar (I think that was what van it was) and we chipped up a lot of the paint on the sliding door (we would always have fond memories of this night when we looked at the door of his van in the future, lol).
That business did work. We sold about $800 worth of washers and dryers that we basically got for free. The problem we ran into was that we could not find a steady supply line of them, so we had to call it quits.
I think that was really where I got my first start into the world of scavenging\ebay. Now I tell my friend that finding a steady supply line is no problem at all with ebay. I’m still trying to get him into ebay because I think he would make a killing.
Mark
Steve,
Yea, that would be some wild auction if Pitney Bowes had an auction of all these blocked GSP items out of their warehouse. I was just down in Erlanger KY over the summer. I had to stop and
get an emergency fix on my car. When I was there, I thought, Erlanger, that sounds familar. Just a small quiet town in the middle of now where. I can get there quick if they have a sale!Mark
Mike,
I didn’t know that. I was thinking that maybe ebay puts these items up for sale on another country’s ebay site so that we don’t see them again, but they sell them there.
Mark
Thrift Raider,
No, I don’t get to sell the converse again. Ebay GSP keeped them, I got the money from the sale and they refunded the buyer.
Mark
10/15/17 – 10/21/17
Total Items in Store: 2,095
Items SOld: 13
Cost of Items Sold: $120 (around)
Total Sales: $621.31
Highest Price Sold: $90 (3 way tie – 4 1986 Santa Bears, Burton Boots, Mid-Century Girl Scout items)
Average Price Sold: 47.80
Returns: 0
Money Spent on New Inventory This Week: $ 231
Number of items listed this week: 37New twist on the Converse All stars that sold last week. It appears that you are not allowed to import Converse All Stars into Japan. The GSP would not allow the shoes to go to Japan. The guy who bought them was upset (not at me) but I got to keep the $850. Expensive “mistake” for the GSP. I wonder what will happen to those shoes?
I had an interesting pick this week. I went to a nice newer condo in a nice neighborhood. I wasn’t expecting much, but this sale had a ton of Pendelton. I was so busy grabbing all of the the Pendelton in this modern environment that I didn’t realize that these Pendleton’s were mostly from the 60’s and 70’s. Another reason I didn’t notice was that the clothing had been kept in such good condition, they looked newer. It was only after I got home and started looking closely at the tags did I realize the timeframe they were from. The mens Pendleton Jacket was worth the most at about $120. So I went back the next day because there was a Ralph Lauren 3 piece suit that I wanted. So I went back and got that suit and took 2 others with it. I offered $20 for the 3 of them and they took it. I didn’t think there was anything special about these until I got home. By looking at the Amalgamated Clothing Workers Union Tag on the Ralph Lauren suit and the Austin Reed suit, I was able to determine that they were from between 1962-1976, based on that tag. See below:
http://www.steelzipper.com/ACWA.html
The 3rd suit had Turn Back Cuffs which I have read are very uncommon. I am going to list all 3 suits for a high dollar. Looks like these 1960’s items keep following me.
Mark
