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The problem is that the outlook changes daily because the data we have is completely unreliable. Months ago they said the infection rate was 10x worse than the flu, but now they think it’s only doubly as bad given the unknown number of asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing overall.
The models that started off this fiasco were closed-source. We don’t know what math was going on behind the scenes, just that the output painted a situation that would have put us in apocalypse mode mid-April. We’re now a few weeks away from that and we’re not even close. A person behind one of those models later came out and said that his adjusted model showed significantly lower casualties in the US with a PEAK in mid-April.
The lesson here is that we know basically nothing. What we can be certain of is that any information coming out is likely be invalidated by the start of the next day’s news cycle. A week ago you were a paranoid freak if you didn’t donate masks to medical staff. Now they’re saying the spread of COVID isn’t as bad in countries that have been wearing masks. Oops!
One thing that can be agreed upon is that the stay-at-home and social distancing guidelines are working to some extent. If we had more accurate models, better healthcare, and more wide-spread testing (like a 1st world country would have), then we could actually give an estimate of when this thing actually peaks and when it’s safe to start loosening restrictions geographically. As you mentioned, that’s the worry – people don’t know how much longer this will continue, and anyone saying they do know is 100% lying because the data we have is rotten to the core. If you we were able to tell people that this will burn out in 6 months, then you can at least put some systems in place to keep those people above-water for that time. But if you can’t give a timeframe and just keep telling them to wait, they’ll get antsy, and then the least of your worries will be COVID.
Awesome news. Everywhere, I assume? I’d be interested in seeing the fine print. My income is reduced, but not zero.
The lockdowns aren’t sustainable. We’re stopping 100% of the economy for a 2-5% mortality rate. The government said there’s potentially “several months” of this left, then handed us, what, $1.5k to $2k? When the money starts to run dry in April/May, I suspect we see just straight-up disobeying of stay-at-home orders, both from the the average person and business owners who don’t have any other options. At a projected 30%+ unemployment rate, some people will effectively lose all they’ve worked for in life, so it’s MAYBE catch COVID-19 via going back to work, or face eviction & life on the street. Not a hard choice for many.
I’m in a similar situation, just on a smaller scale. My store is very lightweight and runs on about 210 items @ $3.5k/$4k a month. This means the store is easier to manage, but has high highs and low lows, which is very evident right now. These last few weeks have put it through the shredder and will likely spit out a completely inoperable store by May. I’m OK thanks to savings, re-routed business funds (no new inventory, gas, etc.,) and TrumpBux, but only until May/June. My hope is that some kind of sourcing can resume in May and I can 180 from bottoming out and salvage Q2.
What I’ve seen from reading online is that this new bill supports self-employed people who would normally not qualify for up to 4 months. I saw the line “$600/wk, plus whatever your state’s base UI rate is.” I have zero idea what that means. Honestly, I’m waiting for someone to make a video explaining all this so math-deficient people like myself stand a chance at doing the application properly. As it stands, I have no idea what they’d need to see to verify my income. Past taxes? What I filed this year? etc.
I agree with Julie. Right now I have very little confidence in the market. I don’t think it would be a good idea to source even if the opportunity presented itself. All the money I had slotted away for new inventory has been moved into personal checking to soften the blow of this downturn. Maybe some TrumpBux will get the ball rolling again, but for now I think the best move is to shelter both myself and my store in place until something changes.
I made a guess earlier this week that I’d see a flurry of sales followed be a lull, so I ran a 25% off sale and just got as much stuff out the door as possible while people were buying. That resulted in $300 on Wednesday.
Since then, only a few under $20 items have sold, in addition to some offers coming in for things of a similar price. The good news is that my death pile consists entirely of items under $20, so I’ll continue listing those in the coming week. The bad news is that there’s very little of it. I’m looking at online auctions, but I’ve had very little luck with them in the past.
Our thrift stores just closed with no plan to reopen anytime soon.
Guess I’m taking a vacation?
My sales have been OK given the circumstances. Fri/Sat last week were awful – probably under $100 both days combined – then nearly $300 on Sunday. Going into this week I fully expected for nothing to sell, but things are fine so far.
I’m looking at some unlisted inventory and thinking maybe it’s time to break into some of the more repair-heavy items. Could easily spend a few hours just working on one thing if I get too involved.
Just to put this all together re: how to handle these from start to finish:
* Ask for a photo. See the damage for yourself. If the person is bluffing, they either stop responding or claim they can’t take pictures.
* If they can’t prove the damage, stick to “Happy to take a return.”
* If you believe the damage is legit, refund X amount.
* If they return the item, so be it. Cost of doing business.
Asking for the photo is a good move because it puts the ball in their court right away. Anyone can compose a message, but it takes just enough effort to take a photo that some people won’t even bother.
Ignore. Red flags everywhere. Take the current state of the world and realize this guy’s #1 concern is a partial refund scam over some expensive pieces of cardboard. That’s all you need to know. Each message they send just builds a better case for eBay removing the negative.
Funny – the reason we’ll still be dealing with this in 3-4 months is entirely thanks to these people who are standing in packed grocery stores panic-buying non-essentials like TP. Now I realize some of these people are doing this just to make some cash, all with a non-zero chance of being non-symptomatic and spreading it to a bunch of people. Cool!
It’s a joke to people. We’re on lockdown here – no non-essential travel – yet hardly anyone is taking it seriously. People are out walking around and just living life like it’s a free vacation day.
That’s unfortunate. They may be bluffing about the negative feedback if they haven’t left it already. eBay reps may find this to be feedback extortion.
And not to bum you out, but I’ve never had eBay reps remove bad feedback. I think a lot of people here have higher store tiers and possibly have more pull with eBay. Not to say eBay doesn’t care about smaller sellers, but I can’t think of another reason. If you have an anchor store you’re probably fine. Otherwise, the reps will just give you a bunch of busywork and an arbitrary list of requirements for having it removed. I’ve called back multiple times and they’ve given me a different set of instructions for their “feedback removal process” each time. The last person told me that in order to remove feedback I had to message the buyer, then call back either 24 hours from the time I sent the message, or call immediately after getting a reply from them. When I did just that, the rep said there was no policy for feedback removal (?) and that my previous conversation wasn’t on record in the system.
It’s entirely possible I could have kept calling back until I got a “reasonable” rep to remove it, but I think my time is worth more than that. What made me feel a bit better was getting a message a few days later from a buyer saying they’d specifically bought from me because of my feedback history. At that point the bad feedback would have been right near the top, too.
It doesn’t feel good to get a negative, but ultimately you just have to roll with it. Very few sellers have 100% feedback.
I’m a millennial. Ghosting has not been common in my experience, and 90% of my friends/partners began as online interactions. I think older people just take online interactions more seriously than us. RTWV puts it well: it’s easy, free, and unemotional. I see things like Tinder/Bumble/etc as a way to do casual conversations that may or may not become something else. If we stop messaging, whatever. Ghosting, to me, is not showing up to a date, or dipping after meeting up a few times. It IS a problem, but usually the warning signs are there.
Sales were slightly lower than normal, but stuff is still selling.
I’m in a weird position right now. A bulk of my sales each week are from items listed in the last 14 to 30 days. Not being able to source with definitely affect my numbers, so I’m rusing out tomorrow morning and doing as much as I can. I have a few items laying around from last week that I didn’t have time to list, but my true death piles are mostly electronics that need repair, or items that are too cheap to bother listing (<$15.)
I’m also getting offers, which is good, since I’m taking most of them to make up for lower numbers. I just got one a few minutes ago for $50 on a $180 item, and when I went to check the person’s store, I found they had sold a bunch of sanitizing wipes at 4x markup just yesterday. I immediately countered at $170 and got a sob story in return with the same $50 offer. Felt good to slam that DECLINE.
