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Thoughts… how long is this Covid 19 pandemic going to last? In one of our Provinces in Canada had “modelling” predictions of 18 – 24 months in a press conference today! This is just like being in a “movie” or “dream”. Our ebay business has been very busy, that’s ok, but I guess I am just longing for the world to get back to normal. Just venting. š¢
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It’s going to be at least 12 months before a vaccine becomes available. Until then, it’s going to be really touch and go. Even if we stop the spread of the virus now through isolation, we’ll get a second wave if we all get back together.
But I agree it’s like a bad dream. I cant imagine how people can survive for months without jobs. Or al the businesses that will just disappear.
My wild guess is after we get the current virus under control, we’ll encourage older folks and anyone vulnerable to isolate. This will let younger folks and anyone who already got the virus (and now immune) to get back to work. Its not ideal, but its realistic.
I like this doctor who does daily updates. Calm and educated:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos -
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On interview with The Daily (podcast from NYT) yesterday, Dr Fauci (Director of US National Inst. Infectious Disease) indicated that the US will open up after things cool off and we will monitor and isolate new outbreaks without having to close down again. Gave me hope we are weeks to maybe two months away.
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It depends on where you live. I got an email the other day that said one of our botanic gardens is tentatively scheduling a July 1st opening. Schools here are most likely shut down for the rest of the school year. Major sporting/concert venues are most likely shut down straight through to the summer or fall.
Iām in NYC and weāre still on the upswing. We have to deal with this first wave and then whenever we get to 0 new cases (however many months that may be), we have to ease back into ānormalā life without immediately causing a second surge. There will most likely still be guidelines for the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Also, weāll have to deal with āimportedā cases from other states and countries. Opening up again will also have to coincide with testing and monitoring in order to keep things ānormal.ā Iām sure in the big cities weāll start seeing temperature tests for those riding public transportation and going into offices. It will outwardly possibly look ānormal,ā but it wonāt be.
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The UK’s halfway through a 3-week lockdown. Latest thinking appears to be that restrictions might be gradually relaxed from the end of May. There’s some apprehension that warm weather tomorrow may cause problems with crowds in beauty spots and beaches (all religous centres are closed).
Jay wrote “weāll encourage older folks and anyone vulnerable to isolate.” You’re not doing that already? We were told three weeks ago that over-70s should isolate.
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Currently, everyone is being told to isolate. Everything closed down. Almost no daily life is allowed.
After this virus outbreak is contained, another strategy is to only have the elderly and vulnerable isolate. Then young people (who are less likely to get seriously ill) and people who have proof of having virus anti-bodies could carry on with daily life.
Here’s a story of how it could be done: “In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies”
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Ah, right. Here it’s “Don’t go out of the house” if you’re elderly or vulnerable. Otherwise only essential food shopping, and one walk, jog or cycle ride a day.
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Are there any specifics provided on what constitutes “elderly”. In my opinion as a 70-year-old individual, “elderly” is relative, I know people 10-15 years younger than me that are much less healthy. I would hate to be classified or restricted by an arbitrary age.
Younger people are often dismissive of old people (I know I was), and although they logically understand they will be there someday it doesn’t really register on a daily basis.
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I doubt in the US, no one will ever be forced inside unless the situation really gets out of control. Authorities are closing businesses by legal order and making outside groups disperse, but no one is being forced to stay inside.
So tt’s doubtful that people over x years will be forced inside in the future. BUT I can see a situation where authorities say “old and vulnerable people are strongly advised to stay inside because we must get back to some kind of daily life and we cannot protect you”. If a vulnerable person wants to venture out, no one will stop them. They’ve been warned. American freedom to take risks.
In a year, I’m sure we’ll know much ore about the virus, but as of now its clear that people over a certain age are being hospitalized and dying in greater numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm#T1_down
This is why Italy has such a great death rate: older population.Especially in the US, older people often have “comorbidities” like high blood pressure, clogged arteries, lung issues, diabeties, obesity, cancer. If your over 70 and in tip top shape, awesome! I’m doing my best to live well too. That’s the cheapest form of healthcare.
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UK government advice was those over 70; a friend’s parents went into isolation beforehand, but at 87 and 93 they’re happy to be elderly. š
In usual British style, the government’s insisting that what they’re saying is not “recommendations” but “rules”; there was some confusion. Dr Campbell made a video to explain the rules.
We were warned that if we didn’t behave ourselves today we would not be able to go out for exercise at all. No sunbathing in public areas. We did behave (I gather).
One thing to watch out for: although advanced age is a determinant in susceptibility, we’re getting cases of young people with no co-morbidities dying.
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One thing to watch out for: although advanced age is a determinant in susceptibility, weāre getting cases of young people with no co-morbidities dying.
Agreed. Young people are not invincible. We’re reading the horror stories of the 20-yr-old workout guy dying like everyone else. But looking at then overall numbers, younger healthy people dying of COVID-19 is less.
I’m in my 40’s and not going to risk it. But we will need to get back to work at some point in public before the vaccine. We’ll all have to weigh what risks we want to take.
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Its 18 months until the vaccine can be expected to be ready, so this saga will be long. That doesn’t mean we will be stuck in our houses for 18 months, but It will probably be punctuated by periods of isolation depending on the numbers of the outbreak. Unfortunately with very limited testing availability and a shortage of PPEs like masks, we are probably in the infancy of the isolation. Also unfortunately, at least in the States, our response is less comprehensive and centralized than other countries, which means it will probably drag on longer here. I’m a retired physician’s assistant, so I am just going off what I am hearing and guessing based on what I know.
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Vaccines take years to develop, and they have still never been able to develop one for any Coronavirus. You can imagine that resources have been put into it – the common cold is a Coronavirus. As Workhorse said – if a miracle happened the shortest amount of time it would take would still be 1.5 years.
I don’t think we can sustain economies on lockdown for that long. I think some relief is going to come once we see the development of an effective cocktail therapy, herd immunity, increased hospital capacity, and improved PPE and ventilator supply channels. Because it’s not hitting the entire US all at once, I think this has the potential to take months and months. I’m preparing for the long haul.
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Down here we are about 2 to 3 weeks behind the US but people have already been staying home and wearing masks when they go out for weeks now. People are not going out to exercise, parks are closed, beaches are closed, many towns have closed themselves off and do not allow anyone who does not live there full time in.
The bad news, xenophobia is at an all time high, Mexico is not a country of great diversity and people are always quick to point out that you are not from here and are very wary of even people from the rest of the country visiting their town, much less a foreigner. I have been a resident here for 14 years and carry my residency card just in case I am ever confused with a tourist.
The good news, because the government, store owners and people have been taking it SO seriously for the past few weeks it should make a major difference in the overall number of cases.
Stay home and stay safe everyone!-
I thought the Mexican President has been very slow to accept this is an emergency. And what’s up with this?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-el-chapo-mother-mexico
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