Is eBay a Slot Machine?

I have thought this same exact thing – The “unpredictability” of receiving the next email is what keeps you checking your email all day – and psychologists have talked about the addictive nature of it (like a casino slot machine). I think eBay is the same way. I don’t think I will EVER get bored of the CHA-CHING. You never know exactly when it is coming – but it will eventually come – especially if you are listing. I’m always chasing my next sale – of course that is what keeps us going on here, right? So, yeah eBay has a slot machine element to it, but it is also a numbers game that offers predictable income with consistent effort going in.. so yes and also no… there ya go a pondering again crazy luftmentsh 😉

Only if you turn it into one.

I have items I know with 100% certainty will sell within a certain time frame for a certain price. If I only sold those items I would have lightning fast inventory turnover, which is not a slot machine at all.
Amazingtaste has an inhuman STR and is as close to this model that I know of.

The majority of my items are pre-researched to determine if there is a market. For a few items I will go with my gut. It is a refined gut honed with countless hours of field/online research, so it’s not a complete guess. I try to find a balance of fast selling items, average items that could take 6-12 months, and a small selection of hail mary haymaker type items just for fun.

Now if your business plan is to simply buy everything you see that is $1 or less and post it for sale, or buy random knockoff Chinese junk to resell then yeah that is kind of a slot machine. There are definitely sellers out there who aren’t willing to put in the work that have this model. They flame out fast and then try to blame ebay and other external sources for their failures.

I see it more as gambling with “posted odds”.

I sell a lot of older/vintage/out of production items. These tend to have a set sales rate and price.

For an item that sells for approximately $50 10 times a week, I know if I list my identical/similar item for $35, it has a 99.9% chance of selling in a couple days. Put that item up for $60, the odds go down put it will sell in a few months.

Other completely unique items are a complete gamble – with no odds that it will sell, and for how much.

Retro,

I understand your point and I agree that if you buy junk, there is no guarantee.

However, most people on this blog are pretty good at buying great items. But, no matter how much research you do, you can never guarantee a sale unless you have a commodity item that is way under priced.

So, I would agree Luftmentsh and ebaymom that it can feel like a slot machine in one way – that is that you never know exactly when you are going to get a sale and what item it will be.

But in another way, I agree with you – if you buy great items, you know that they will sell. But you still have to admit that just because you know they will sell, you don’t know when and for what price (in advance, unless you set limits). This is especially true of long tail items.

So, long tail items seem to fit the slot machine theory. The items that are commodity or those that just sell fast, that is more predictable. So, in summary, I think it depends a lot on your type of store as to how well the slot machine analogy fits.

Mark

I relate ebay to Weight Watchers. You lose enough weight to keep you coming back, but not so quick that you get to your goal weight and then stop coming (i.e. Paying fees). As long as you know the game, eventually you will get to “goal.” 🙂

Sometimes I feel like Ebay is a slot machine because you never know what’s going to sell when. I attribute this to so many potential buyers being on the platform. It also feels like a slot machine in that sales often seem to go in spurts. It used to be that I would post 5-10 listings and within a couple of hours a couple of other previously listed items would go and sell. This pattern is less noticeable though lately. On the other hand, I have started listing holiday and seasonal items 2-3 months ahead of the event instead of just randomly throwing things up at any time. It worked out better for me last year with that process.

I think eBay is just a business. Like every business, there are risks. Much different than gambling.

If you open a bike shop in your town, there are so many factors that will make you succeed or fail. But its definitely not luck.

I think Blackjack would be a better analogy.
If you watch and count the cards closely enough you will know when the deck is stacked, full of face cards and aces, which gives the edge to the player.
After you get some experience selling on eBay you begin to learn what sells quickly and/or for more money.
There’ll always be randomness and luck involved but through experience and research you can sway the odds in your favor unlike a slot machine where the payout is predetermined and the odds always go to the house.

I liked it when Will / Terminal 99 compared pipeline selling to the coin drop game @ minute 9 of his interview.

I agree with Steve. The fun “game” element is learning to find value where others don’t see it. That’s the hook.

“The fun “game” element is learning to find value where others don’t see it. That’s the hook.”

That really summarizes it nicely.

I’m late to the conversation here again, so perhaps the point is moot — but I think the slot machine analogy itself isn’t terrible — eBay can definitely provide that kind of ‘intermittent reward’ stimulation the OP talks about. You never know (and can never be in control of) when you’ll have a sale, or what will sell, or how many things will sell in a day. So in that sense, it is a little like the random payouts of a slot machine and probably does light up some similar parts of the brain. Cha-ching!

That said, I don’t think the payout of their intermittent reward system is something specifically set up by eBay to keep you hooked and listing and running on their hamster wheel. It’s not eBay but rather life itself that is the “essentially unpredictable endeavor.” You can’t control (or even control FOR) everything, everywhere, on eBay or in life.

I’m a HUGE overthinker. “Analysis Paralysis” is my middle name, which makes writing checks a big pain because the signature lines are so small. But, OP, sometimes you have to just jump in. Will a plate get chipped in storage? Maybe. Will a painting, badly stored, pick up an off smell? Perhaps. Will you drop something when you’re about to wrap it and have it shatter into a million pieces? It’s happened. Will the mail truck drive over and crush your outgoing packages when arriving to pick them up? One hopes not. Will eBay throttle our sales with rolling blackouts and payout algorithms? Don’t know.

Consistently sourcing and listing interesting items — making mistakes every day along the way — is the best way I’ve found to make money on eBay. And, fortunately, those are two things I do actually have some control over. As for the rest of it… well, there are a lot of good quotes about worrying out there.

It’s like a rocking chair — it gives you something to do but doesn’t get you anywhere.
It’s like praying for what you don’t want.
It’s like paying a debt you don’t owe.
It’s like walking around with an umbrella, waiting for it to rain.

Good luck!

““Analysis Paralysis” is my middle name, which makes writing checks a big pain because the signature lines are so small. ”

hee hee
🙂

To me eBay is similar to a slot machine in that you never know when it will “hit”. I can have the same item listed for months at the same price, with no idea when that “right” buyer might come along and actually hit on my listing.

Also I only play quarter slots, which is similar to how I buy inventory for eBay, I’m not comfortable gambling with big money since I’m not a professional, just a player!

I always think that eBay most closely resembles fishing. We are putting our bait in the water, and we never know when we will get a bite. You put 500, 1000, 2000 lines in the water, and your chances of consistent bites are much better. The bites are random, but 99% of the time…you will get a fish at some point.

But if we have to stay in the casino…poker. Those that know what they are doing will make a good living at it. When the money comes in is more random, but you can make an hourly wage at poker. I have done this myself.

Funny thing is…I equated Poker to Fishing as well. Patience…