Sale & return "clumping" - Scavenger Life

This topic has 10 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 10 months ago by Zach.

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- 07/06/2017 at 10:32 am #20093
  simplicio
  Participant
  Location:
  @simplicio
  Seems like there is a long shadow cast over eBay sellers by the fickleness of sales, and also by those times when it seems like every customer has an issue.
  
  Maybe it’s a little spergy of me but I find it helpful to consider the Poisson distribution, which applies to the number of times something (like a sale) is expected to occur in a given time (like a day), given a known average (e.g., daily) rate.
  
  Let’s say your average sale frequency is 2 items per day.
  
  Then the probability that any given day will have
  0 sales: 14%
  1 sale: 27%
  2 sales: 27%
  3 sales: 18%
  4 sales: 9%
  …
  Note that you get less than your average on 1 day out of 3, and fully 1 day in 7 will have no sales at all.
  
  Things clump together sometimes, it’s no big deal.
- 07/06/2017 at 12:10 pm #20102
  MyCottage
  Participant
  Location:
  @mycottage
  Thanks. Very interesting.
- 07/06/2017 at 2:32 pm #20111
  Jay
  Keymaster
  Location: Virginia
  @jay
  I like that! Yes, looking at our numbers over time usually shows things even out. I think amateur sellers are the ones who really focus on the day-to-day ups and downs. They attempt to read into every little nuance drives them crazy.
- 07/06/2017 at 8:09 pm #20123
  sonia
  Participant
  Location: Northeast US
  @sonia
  “I find it helpful to consider the Poisson distribution ”
  
  Me too. I had been meaning to write a post about it for a while, but I wasn’t sure how to explain it clearly and concisely. You explained it perfectly!
- 07/11/2017 at 2:33 pm #20258
  Zach
  Participant
  Location: Kansas City
  @zach
  It’s easy to get caught up in the day to day struggles. I try to look at my quarterly numbers and compare those to the same quarter in prior years. This gives me a much better idea of the health of my business. It also usually reduces panic after a bad well.
  
  Jay / Ryanne:
  May I suggest at the end of each quarter, you create a thread where everyone can post quarterly numbers. This would be much more insightful than just seeing the weekly ups and downs.
  - 07/11/2017 at 2:38 pm #20259
    Jay
    Keymaster
    
    Location: Virginia
    @jay
    Good idea. Will you just remind me when the end of a quarter comes up? I’ll post our numbers.
- 07/11/2017 at 2:48 pm #20261
  Zach
  Participant
  Location: Kansas City
  @zach
  Q2 just ended on June 30, so now would be as good a time as any to post those Q2 numbers.
  - 07/11/2017 at 4:57 pm #20275
    Jay
    Keymaster
    
    Location: Virginia
    @jay
    I just used the 90 day filter on on eBay sold items:
    Quantity: 709
    Sale price: $24,132.20
    Total price (Includes shipping): $29,135.59
    
    This reply was modified 8 years, 10 months ago by Jay.
- 07/11/2017 at 7:46 pm #20282
  Zach
  Participant
  Location: Kansas City
  @zach
  Here is my Q2 via my Godaddy bookkeeping numbers.
  
  Amazon Sales: 1,248.17
  Ebay Sales: 15,928.17
  Shipping Income: 2,495.07
  Amazon Returns: -242.49
  Ebay Returns: -425.83
  Amazon Fees: -475.80
  Ebay Fees: -2,015.88
  COGS: -1,404.18
  
  Profit: 15,107.23
  
  Total Transactions: 640
  
  Overall, not a bad quarter for me, despite having a June that was the worst sales totals I’ve had in 2 years.
  - 07/11/2017 at 9:25 pm #20284
    Jay
    Keymaster
    
    Location: Virginia
    @jay
    In GDBK, is there a page that has all those numbers in one place?
    or did you have to hunt for it?
- 07/11/2017 at 11:46 pm #20287
  Zach
  Participant
  Location: Kansas City
  @zach
  Most of the numbers you can get by clicking on the GDBK home page (web browser version) and clicking on the “View Details” link by the Profit and Loss graph. That page gives you a rundown on your income and expenses, with the ability to see it for any date range you want.
  
  To break down between Amazon Sales / Amazon Returns and eBay Sales / Ebay Returns, you need to create new subcategories that feed into the Sales / Returns main categories. You’ll have to manually change the categories of the original entries to the new classification.
  
  To get the Total Transactions, on the “View Details” page, click on “Sales by State” at the top. This gives your breakdown, which you can add up to get total transactions.
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